Wednesday, March 19, 2008

DC V Heller My predictions

Here is the transcript:
http://www.supremecourtus.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/07-290.pdf
find the audio yourself.

Ok after spending 5 hours reading and listening to the arguments I have come to the following predictions.

It will be a 5 to 4 split for Heller. DC will lose it's gun ban, yet they will cook up other restrictions to make it really hard to get a firearm and there will continue to be storage restrictions.

In the big picture the decision will state that "reasonable restrictions" are constitutional. With the central theme that the right to keep and bear arms is one of an individual.

Effects that blanket bans on types of guns will go away in their current form. They will pop up again in new creative gun banning ways.

LIKE AMMO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! This is the next one. Ok so you want that FN MAG you can have it but due to various restrictions it is going to cost you $10 a round.

I used the FN MAG as an example but I highly doubt that machine guns and destructive devices are going to be touched. I know the high dollar machine gun dealers (I am looking south to vegas) are shitting themselves at the idea of $800 m-16s. The NFA of 34 and 68 will stand along with the 1986 ban on registration of new machine guns. So basically the title 2 firearms will remain in their current legal designation.

I hope I am wrong here but I see very little coming from this ruling IF they rule in favor of Heller.

One can wish.

9 comments:

Rus said...

I think you're right with the 5/4 split. From what I see the key for us will be the SCOTUS definition of "reasonable restrictions".

There's also the question of the courts decision encompassing the 14th amendment so cities like Chicago will be forced to lift their ineffective handgun bans as well.

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